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Dr. Harsh J Shah

Pancreatic Cancer: How Common Is It, and Who Is at Risk?

Last updated: 09-Nov-2026

Dr Harsh Shah, pancreas cancer surgeon, Ahmedabad

Dr Harsh Shah
MS, MCh (Surgical Gastroenterology), DrNB (Surgical Gastroenterology)
Registered with Gujarat Medical Council, Reg. No. G-38738
Pancreas Cancer Surgeon
Dr. Jivraj Mehta Hospital, Vasna, Ahmedabad · 18 years of experience

In short

Pancreatic cancer is less common in India than in Europe or America, but it is rising here. It is mostly a disease of people past 60.

Smoking, long-standing diabetes, new diabetes after 50, chronic pancreatitis and a strong family history raise the risk. Most people with these risks never get it.

The disease is usually found late, because early signs are vague. That is why new yellow eyes, or diabetes with weight loss, should never wait.

This post is about how common the disease is and who gets it. For the full treatment plan, from stent to operation, see our pancreatic cancer treatment page.

Who gets pancreatic cancer?

It is mainly a disease of older adults. Most people are diagnosed in their sixties or seventies, and men are affected a little more often than women.

The risk rises steadily with each decade of age. Cases under 40 are rare, and when they happen a family or genetic cause is more likely. Smoking, diabetes and long-standing pancreatitis add to the risk of age itself.

Having one of these risks does not mean you will get the cancer. Most people who smoke, or have diabetes, never develop it. The list below helps you and your doctor decide who needs closer attention, not who is doomed.

How common is it in India, and is it rising?

In India the disease is less common than in Europe or North America. Reports from the national cancer registries show it is rising, mostly in cities.

Doctors see more cases because people now live longer, and because diabetes, obesity and smoking have all become more common. Better scans also mean that more cases are named correctly, which used to be missed or called something else.

  • Cases are reported more often in the north and west of India and in big cities.
  • Worldwide, the disease is now one of the major causes of cancer death.
  • Most countries see a slow yearly rise, and doctors expect it to continue.
  • Many patients reach a specialist three to six months after their first symptom.

A rising number does not mean it is likely for you. It means we should know the warning signs and act early when they appear.

What raises the risk of pancreatic cancer?

Smoking, diabetes, chronic pancreatitis and inherited gene changes are the main risks. Diabetes that starts after 50 is a special warning sign.

Main risk factors for pancreatic cancer and how much each one matters
Risk factorHow much it raises the riskWhat it means for you
Age past 60Steady rise with every decadeTakes more care with new symptoms
Smoking, current or pastClearly higher; falls slowly after quittingQuit; it is the biggest risk you can change
New diabetes after 50Much higher in the first two yearsWith weight loss, ask for a scan
Long-standing diabetesMildly higherKeep sugar under control
Chronic pancreatitisHigher; very high in the inherited formRegular review with a pancreas specialist
Family history in a parent, brother or sisterTwo to three times higherTell your doctor; genetic advice may help
Inherited gene changes (BRCA, PALB2, Lynch)Higher, depending on the geneGenetic counselling for the family
Obesity, heavy alcohol, processed meatMildly higherSmall gains; healthy weight helps

Most pancreatic cancers happen in people with no strong family history. Risk factors raise the odds; they do not decide the outcome.

Where does it start, and which type is it?

Most pancreatic cancers are ductal adenocarcinoma. Most of them start in the head of the pancreas, the part next to the bile duct.

The head sits where the bile duct enters the bowel. A tumour here often blocks the duct early, so the eyes turn yellow. Tumours in the body or tail have no such early signal, so they are often found later.

  • Ductal adenocarcinoma is by far the usual type.
  • Acinar cell cancer and cancers from cysts are rarer.
  • Neuroendocrine tumours and solid pseudopapillary tumours are different diseases with a different outlook, and they are handled separately.

The exact type matters, because it decides the treatment. That is why a tissue sample is taken whenever the plan depends on it.

Why is it usually found late?

Early pancreatic cancer rarely hurts. Its first signs, such as tiredness, mild back ache or new diabetes, look like many common problems.

The pancreas lies deep in the belly, behind the stomach. A small tumour there cannot be felt, and routine blood tests do not find it. By the time pain or yellow eyes appear, the tumour has often grown near large blood vessels or spread.

When the disease is found, doctors sort patients into three broad groups:

  1. The tumour can be removed at once.
  2. The tumour touches nearby vessels and needs chemotherapy before an operation.
  3. The cancer has already spread, and treatment aims to control it and keep you well.

Only a minority of patients are in the first group when they arrive. The plan for each group is different, and each one has its own page on this site.

Is the outlook getting better?

Yes, slowly. Better chemotherapy, chemotherapy before surgery in selected patients, and treatment in high-volume centres have helped.

Pancreatic cancer is still among the harder cancers to treat, and we say so plainly. But the picture is not what it was twenty years ago. A patient who reaches a specialist early, with a good scan, has more options than before.

Operations such as the Whipple operation are safer where a team does many of them every year. Skill in the operating theatre, a good intensive care unit and experienced follow-up all affect safety.

What should you do if you are at higher risk?

There is no routine screening test for the general public. If you have a strong family history, or a warning sign, see a surgeon and get a proper scan.

  • New diabetes after 50, especially with weight loss and no clear reason
  • Yellow eyes, dark urine and itching, often without pain
  • Upper belly pain that goes through to the back
  • Two or more close relatives with pancreatic cancer
  • Long-standing pancreatitis, or an unexplained attack after 50

Stop smoking, keep a healthy weight, and keep sugar under control. These steps help whatever your risk. If a scan has already shown a mass, read about the tests that come next.

Frequently asked questions

Who is most at risk of pancreatic cancer?

People past 60 are at most risk. Smoking, new diabetes after 50, chronic pancreatitis and a strong family history add to it. Most people with these risks never get the cancer.

Is pancreatic cancer common in India?

It is less common than in Europe or America, but it is rising, mostly in cities. Longer life, diabetes, obesity and smoking all play a part.

Does diabetes cause pancreatic cancer?

Long-standing diabetes raises the risk only a little. New diabetes after 50, with weight loss, can be an early sign of the cancer itself, and it deserves a scan.

Does pancreatic cancer run in families?

Sometimes. A parent, brother or sister with the disease raises your risk. A few inherited gene changes raise it more, and genetic counselling can help the family.

Can young people get pancreatic cancer?

It is rare under 40. When it happens, a family or genetic cause is more likely. Some other pancreatic tumours, which are not the usual cancer, are seen in young women.

Why is pancreatic cancer found late?

The pancreas lies deep in the belly, and early tumours rarely hurt. The first signs look like common problems, so many people reach a specialist only after months.

Is there a screening test I can take?

There is no routine screening test for the public. People with a strong family history or known gene change may be offered special scans. Ask a pancreas specialist.

Can I lower my risk?

Yes, partly. Stop smoking, keep a healthy weight, limit alcohol and control your sugar. These steps help your health even if they cannot remove the risk completely.

Related pages

Where Dr Harsh Shah sees patients and operates

Dr Harsh Shah — Dr. Jivraj Mehta Hospital, Vasna, Ahmedabad
Dr. Jivraj Mehta Hospital, Dr Jivraj Mehta Marg, Vasna, Ahmedabad 380007.
Consultations, review of reports and scans, operations and follow-up. OPD Monday to Saturday, 9 am to 5 pm.
Appointments: +91-63555-64601 · +91-63590-11009 · Hospital 079-2663 6363
Directions to the hospital · WhatsApp +91-63555-64601

Worried about pancreatic cancer because of your age, new diabetes or a family history? Dr Harsh Shah can go through your risk with you and tell you which symptoms need a scan. Bring any scans and reports you already have. You can also call, or message us on WhatsApp. Call For Appointment Book on WhatsApp Tapping Book on WhatsApp will likely open the WhatsApp app on your phone.

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Dr. Harsh J Shah
Dr Harsh Shah, Gastro, Cancer & Laparoscopic Surgeon, Ahmedabad
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